This is only the first of what will be many articles written on the impact of the Obama victory on the US relationship with Cuba and the resulting efffect on the tourist industries of other Caribbean countries.
Lifting of Cuba ban could hit rest of Caribbean
By Benedict Mander in Caracas
Published: November 10 2008 02:00 | Last updated: November 10 2008 02:00
Fears are growing that the tourism industry in many Caribbean nations could suffer if Barack Obama, US president-elect, decides to weaken or lift the long-standing US embargo on Cuba.
US passport holders are now banned from going to Cuba. But if American tourists - the Caribbean's biggest group of visitors - were granted unrestricted access to what is potentially the region's largest tourism destination, a "seismic shift" could hit the Caribbean, said Rafael Romeu, an International Monetary Fund economist who has studied the issue.
What exactly an Obama administration will do on Cuba remains unclear. But any shift allowing US travel to the Caribbean's largest island could represent the single most significant change in US policy towards the region and its economies.
While Cuba has suffered from strict trade barriers for the past half-century, the rest of the region has benefited as a result. Now, however, they will need to act quickly to prepare themselves for this large loss in what amount to implicit trade preferences - or suffer the consequences, said Mr Romeu.
Destinations most vulnerable are those that depend most heavily on US tourists, such as the Bahamas and Cancún, while others that have a higher proportion of European visitors will be less hit, such as the Dominican Republic and Barbados.
Mr Romeu expects a net increase of more than 10 per cent in the region's visitors as costs of visiting fall.
About 1.4m people visit Cuba each year. But Cuba is expected to receive as many as 3.5m US visitors alone if the US changes its policy.
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